Risk, resilience and value: how logistics real estate investment is changing in Iberia

Logistics real estate investment in Iberia is no longer analysed solely in terms of location, rent or land availability. The current context requires the incorporation of new criteria that, just a few years ago, carried secondary importance but can now determine the viability, value and liquidity of a logistics asset.

This became clear during the second session of the Desayuno Inmologístico organised by GSE Iberia together with Baker McKenzie and Cadena de Suministro, with the participation of Jesus Lancharro, Jesús Lacasia Purroy, José Antonio Pérez Breva and Ramón Lázaro Mencía.

During the discussion, the participants addressed the factors that are redefining decision-making in the sector: electricity availability, construction costs, legal certainty, regulation, sustainability, flexibility and asset resilience.

Electricity availability is now a critical factor

One of the central points of the session was the changing importance of energy in logistics and industrial projects.

Jesus Lancharro noted that, within investment decisions, construction costs, location and, particularly, electricity availability have become priorities. As he explained, a few years ago it was taken for granted that a logistics development would eventually have sufficient power available. Today, however, the question arises earlier: whether the asset will actually have access to the energy it needs.

This change directly affects investment, design and the development schedule. The greater electrical intensity of operations, automation, cold storage requirements and pressure from other energy-intensive uses have made electricity connectivity a central element of the analysis.

As a result, a logistics asset can no longer be valued solely on the basis of its location or surface area. Its energy capacity, its position in relation to available connection points and the certainty of its connection have become determining factors for its future competitiveness.

Geopolitical uncertainty as part of the analysis

Jesús Lacasia Purroy focused on the difficulty of anticipating scenarios in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, inflation, interest rates and uncertainty regarding costs.

During his contribution, he recalled that the logistics sector has demonstrated its ability to respond during complex periods, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. He also pointed out that logistics has been one of the most resilient real estate sectors, precisely because of its role as supporting infrastructure for the distribution of goods.

At the same time, he warned of a more structural risk: the disconnect between political planning and actual infrastructure requirements. In his view, the electricity issue does not affect logistics alone, but forms part of a broader concern regarding the country’s ability to meet future demand.

Legal certainty and regulation: an investment factor

Legal certainty emerged as one of the main areas of concern.

José Antonio Pérez Breva explained that analysis processes are no longer limited to reviewing ownership, encumbrances or traditional planning matters. Increasingly, more information is required regarding technical conditions, the validity of permits, electricity capacity, possible revocations, regulatory requirements and future regulatory scenarios.

As he explained, clients no longer ask only about the traditional legal elements of a transaction. They also want to know whether a technical condition is valid, what stage it has reached, whether it can be lost or what must be done to maintain it.

This development responds to a clear reality: logistics projects have long cycles and can be affected by regulatory changes or changes in interpretation during their development.

For investors, this introduces an additional layer of uncertainty. For developers and contractors, it requires a greater capacity for anticipation. And for end users, it can influence schedules, costs and the asset’s actual availability.

From constructing a warehouse to designing an adaptable asset

From a technical and construction perspective, Ramón Lázaro Mencía introduced the concept of resilience as applied to the building.

During his contribution, he argued that the asset must be considered from the design and construction stages so that it can adapt to future uses and better withstand changes in its environment. Logistics is no longer simply about constructing a box in which to store goods. Today, buildings incorporate more technology, greater operational requirements, higher energy needs and increased attention to the comfort of the people working in them.

This requires decisions to be made from the outset regarding height, structure, automation possibilities, preparation for cold storage, internal flexibility, energy efficiency and the capacity to accommodate operational changes without major subsequent investments.

The aim is not to oversize the project, but to anticipate the elements that can protect its value over time. Making the necessary investment during the design and construction stages can prevent significant CAPEX in the future and improve the asset’s ability to respond to new market demands.

Construction costs: a variable requiring greater contractual management

The variability of construction costs was another of the topics discussed.

José Antonio Pérez Breva noted that issues that were not previously central, such as potential increases in steel prices or the contractual allocation of certain risks, are now part of the day-to-day management of contracts.

This development affects developers, contractors, investors and occupiers alike. Construction costs can determine the financial viability of a project, particularly when rents cannot absorb certain increases or when administrative procedures are delayed.

In this context, early risk management, contractual clarity and collaboration between the parties become essential to maintaining the balance between cost, schedule and quality.

Sustainability with an operational impact

Sustainability was also addressed from a practical perspective.

Jesús Lancharro explained that sustainability is already part of the financial analysis of projects. As he indicated, assets must be developed with a sufficient level of sustainability to allow them to adapt to potential regulatory changes or future requirements with low or moderate CAPEX investments. He also pointed out that clients are beginning to have a clearer understanding of what they expect from sustainability. It is not simply a matter of obtaining certification, but of ensuring that the investment has a genuine impact on operational efficiency.

He also pointed out that clients are beginning to have a clearer understanding of what they expect from sustainability. It is not simply a matter of obtaining certification, but of ensuring that the investment has a genuine impact on operational efficiency.

This involves analysing emissions during construction, energy efficiency, potential future regulatory changes and the building’s ability to reduce subsequent investment.

In strategic projects or long-term developments, sustainability is being integrated into financial analysis. The objective is clear: to make the asset more efficient, more resistant to future requirements and more competitive compared with other properties.

Logistics real estate investment in Iberia: new regulations and existing assets

Fire safety regulations were another of the topics discussed during the session.

Jesús Lacasia Purroy considered that the economic impact of the new regulations would not be decisive for new assets, although they could create differences between adapted assets and older assets. As he explained, when a warehouse becomes vacant, changes occupier or requires significant adaptation, additional investments may arise.

This does not mean that all existing assets will automatically lose value, but it does reinforce a trend: buildings that are better prepared, more flexible and more technically up to date will be in a stronger position to maintain their usefulness and attractiveness over time.

The need for a closer connection between regulators and the regulated product was also highlighted. Regulation can provide certainty, but it must also understand the technical, economic and operational reality of logistics assets.

Flexibility: a concept that must be defined

Flexibility was one of the most frequently repeated concepts during the discussion, although it did not always have the same meaning.

Jesús Lacasia Purroy noted that the flexibility of a building has obvious physical limits. A 20,000 m² warehouse will retain that surface area throughout its useful life. For this reason, in many cases, the flexibility requested by the user is not only related to construction, but also to economic factors: flexibility in rent, use or the way in which the space is occupied.

From a technical perspective, Ramón Lázaro Mencía defended the importance of designing assets that can be converted at the lowest possible cost. Preparing a warehouse for future uses, automation or cold storage requirements can make the difference between a competitive asset and one that requires significant investment in order to remain useful.

Logistics real estate investment in Iberia: resilience as a criterion for design, investment and value

The word resilience occupied a central position in the discussion.

Applied to the logistics real estate sector, it does not simply mean withstanding a crisis. It means designing, constructing and investing in assets capable of continuing to operate and adapt in changing scenarios: regulatory changes, geopolitical tensions, inflation, construction costs, new energy requirements or changes in demand.

Resilience is therefore not an abstract concept. It is a way of protecting the value of the asset.

A resilient logistics property is one that combines a good location, connectivity, energy capacity, construction quality, flexibility, efficiency and a low risk of obsolescence.

What a competitive logistics asset needs today

At the end of the session, the speakers agreed on several essential criteria for investing in a logistics asset with a long-term perspective.

Jesus Lancharro highlighted location, resilience, electricity connectivity and the capacity to reduce future CAPEX. He also emphasised the value of public-private collaboration and the role of industry organisations in providing greater certainty to the market.

Ramón Lázaro Mencía stressed quality, flexibility and the ability to anticipate requirements through design and construction. He also defended industrialisation and standardisation as ways of reducing time, costs and complexity.

José Antonio Pérez Breva, from a more legal and long-term perspective, pointed towards assets or businesses with a solid structure, capable of generating value for decades.

Taken together, the contributions present a clear idea: the logistics real estate market is entering a more demanding phase. Developing square metres is no longer enough. The asset must be prepared to respond to more complex operations, more demanding users and a less predictable environment.

Logistics real estate investment in Iberia: a new way of understanding logistics real estate development

The logistics and industrial sector in Iberia continues to demonstrate a strong capacity for adaptation. It has already proved this during previous crises and in contexts of high uncertainty.

However, the new scenario requires decisions to be made with greater technical depth, a more long-term perspective and closer coordination between investment, design, construction, regulation and operations.

For GSE Iberia, this approach forms part of its way of understanding logistics real estate development: anticipating risks, integrating solutions from the design stage and constructing assets that are prepared to remain useful, efficient and competitive throughout their entire useful life.

Because the value of a logistics asset no longer depends solely on where it is located. It also depends on how it is conceived, how it is constructed and the extent to which it can adapt to what lies ahead.